How Scary is Your Schedule?

Here we go.

It’s the time of year when even the most improbable of outcomes spark hope to bleeding-heart fan bases.  That special spot in the calendar where the hockey world abandons all logic (and calculators) to realize that mathematically eliminated is the only kind of eliminated that matters.

It’s also the time when — regardless of what corner of the hockey universe we come from — we band together and collectively boo the schedule maker.  As if they knew last summer the precise conundrum each team would be in and with Dante-esque precision planned the perfect nine circles to form everyone’s personal hell; they’re basically Ted Danson from the Good Place (Bortles!).

For me, it’s three games against the league leading Florida Panthers in the final weeks of the season — don’t worry, it’s not like I wanted home ice advantage, it’s perfectly fine [read: fuck me].

In an effort to feed everyone’s obsession — and give even the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers of the world hope — I evaluated the difficulty of each team’s remaining schedule, and then compared it across each conference’s respective wild card race.

Is Pittsburgh really out of it? Do the Blues have anything to worry about? Which team might pick up unexpected points and unintentionally take themselves out of the lottery?  Find out below.

NOTE: The higher the number, the more difficult the schedule (I’m sorry Colorado, I’m just the messenger).

And with that, I’ll leave all you sickos to your own devices. Abandon all hope, ye who enter.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

The East has a weird balance between the Daigle Division, who has the toughest calendar of the four MRFHL quadrants, and the Brendl who is fractions of a point off the easiest

A couple things of interest here.  First off, evidently the third divisional spot is not where anyone wants to be.  The schedules for Washington and Toronto are the conference’s toughest, roughly two points above the next closest (Ottawa) and five points above the conference average (64.2).

While Washington might not have anything to worry about — Pittsburgh is 8 points behind and have played an extra game — Toronto fans have to be sensing the pressure.  Detroit is 4 points back with a game in hand and a markedly easier schedule.  The season closes with a game between the two Daigle division rivals and the four point swing looks to have big playoff implications.  Ready the fireworks.

Also worth paying attention to — the five smoothest schedules can be found in the conference’s bottom six teams.  The easiest falling to New Jersey (58.5) with Pittsburgh (59.6) not far behind.  This could really ruin a run for one of the 2025 Draft’s top-three, especially for Chicago who holds the Devils’ 2025 1st.

One last thought, if the New York Islanders ever wanted to find a time to get hot — it would be now.  They’re five points back of a playoff spot with a considerably easier schedule than anyone above them save Pittsburgh (who is about to run into problems with their starting goaltender having played too many games).  Now’s the time, Robby.  PUSH!

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Both Western Conference divisions are pretty level when it comes to average schedule difficulty, with a slight advantage going to the Stefan.

Colorado has the league’s worst road ahead, with a pair of games against both the St. Louis Blues and the Los Angeles Kings as well as playoff bound Calgary, Columbus, Vancouver, Detroit and Anaheim.  While Minnesota is their next Stefan competitor and boast a pretty laid back schedule, the twelve point gap seems like the Grand Canyon at this time of the year.

On the other side of things, Nashville looks to have the best odds of bottoming out and claiming the best lottery odds ahead of the draft.  The Predators have set themselves up nicely with a glut of draft capital including their own first, two selections in the second and third round, four selections in the fourth and two more in the fifth.  Whether they hold onto all those picks or use them in trade to bolster their lineup ahead of the draft, it seems Music City sits atop of the MRFHL draft day throne.

Worth noting is the fact that while the Blues and the Florida Panthers are tied in points at 95, the Panthers game in hand might not help them much as St. Louis has a considerably easier path to the postseason.  The President’s Trophy could indeed be heading west.  And while we’re looking at the top of the standings, the Calgary Flames should be licking their lips at the chance to topple the Kings, it’d mean the difference between playing Vancouver (yuck, no thanks) or Anaheim (no offense) in the first round.

Also, as we’re all on Tanner 2025 pick watch, it seems there’s a good chance our friends in oil country will fall in the final weeks, ensuring they hold onto their 2025 pick and instead send Detroit their 2026 unprotected 1st.

I’m really not sure if any of this means anything, if I’ve indeed come forth to rebehold the stars, or if I’ve just given myself something else to grumble about through the final weeks — but misery loves company.  

So, welcome. Could I mix you a drink?

Austin Evans

4 1sts in 2026 instead of 3 in 2025? Okay I can handle that

How Scary is Your Schedule?
Comparing the strength of the remaining schedule for all 32 teams.

• 1 teams Like this  1 month

Clayton Hansler in the long run, i think you'll be better for it. 2026 is going to be WILD

1 month  0 teams Like this