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MRFHL Draft Lottery History

2026-05-07

In preparation for the draft lottery tonight it’s time to look back at how the fortunes of some teams can shift on a single night, as even sitting with the best odds the order can shift drastically. 

 

2025: 

 

  1. Nashville (1st - 18.5%)

  2. Pittsburgh (7th - 6.5%)

  3. Boston (3rd - 11.5%)

Losers: Philadelphia (2nd - 13.5%)

 

The Matthew Schaefer draft. Starting off here we have a rare case of the top pick staying with the team that finished last. For the most part a stable top 3, expect the Pennsylvania rival Penguins jump up to 2nd dropping out the Flyers in the top 3.

 

2024

 

  1. Dallas (2nd - 12.1%)

  2. Islanders (5th - 8.5%)

  3. Florida via Calgary (6th - 7.6%)

Losers: Chicago via Minnesota (1st - 16.6%), Seattle (3rd - 10.3%), Buffalo (4th - 10.3%)

 

Some big changes in the top 3 in the Celebrini draft. The Stars once got an opportunity to pick at the top, which the rest of the bottom of the standings including the expansion Seattle Kraken got bumped out.

 

2023 

 

  1. Tampa Bay (5th - 8.5%)

  2. Boston (3rd - 11.5%)

  3. Los Angeles via New Jersey (7th - 6.5%)

Losers: Ottawa (1st - 18.5%), Islanders (2nd - 13.5%)

 

Bedard has had a massive impact for the Lightning already and it all started with a surprise jump up from 5th.  The top 2 teams fell out of the top 3 and this was one of the few years the consistent New Jersey trading of picks burned him.

 

2022

 

  1. Vegas (5th - 8.5%)

  2. Boston (3rd - 11.5%)

  3. Islanders via Vancouver (10th - 3.5%)

Losers: Nashville (1st - 18.5%), Chicago (2nd - 13.5%)

 

Once again the 5th spot with another jump up to the top spot, while the teams at 1 & 2 fell out. There was definitely a point during this season where the idea of a traded Canucks picking winning was a possibility, but they’re still in the playoffs. Chicago was the big loser at the lottery, but still ended up moving up at the draft to pick #1 via trade.


 

2021

 

  1. Vegas (3rd - 11.5%)

  2. San Jose (9th - 5%)

  3. Arizona (1st - 18.5%)

Losers: Edmonton via Carolina (2nd - 13.5%)

 

The expansion Golden Knights started off the franchise picking Owen Power. San Jose saw the massive jump up while the Oilers were close to pulling off the rare feat of winning the cup and picking 1st, see later below for that.

 

2020

 

  1. Rangers (5th - 8.5%)

  2. Buffalo (2nd - 13.5%)

  3. Islanders (4th - 9.5%)

Losers: St. Louis (1st - 19.5%), Detroit via New Jersey (3rd - 11.5%)

 

 The COVID lottery. Once again a traded pick in the top 3 missed out on the lottery, while the state of New York reaped all the benefits.

 

2019

 

  1. Carolina (1st - 20%)

  2. Anaheim (8th - 6%)

  3. Detroit (3rd - 11.5%)

Losers: Arizona (2nd - 13.5%)

 

The Ducks saw a massive jump up into the top 3, but between before 2025 this was the last time the team with the best odds won the lottery with Jack Hughes ending up in Carolina.

 

2018 

 

  1. Chicago (10th - 3.5%)

  2. Boston via Rangers (11th - 3%)

  3. Colorado (2nd - 13.5%)

Losers: Anaheim (1st - 20%), St. Louis (3rd - 11.5%)

 

The real shock of the lotteries so far. Chicago stunned everyone moving up to the 1st pick, but also the Bruins had a massive jump up the rankings as well. Rasmus Dahlin is still a cornerstone of the Blackhawks defence because of it.

 

2017

 

  1. Buffalo (1st - 20%)

  2. Dallas (2nd - 13.5%)

  3. St. Louis (5th - 8.5%)

Losers: Minnesota (3rd - 11.5%)

 

Almost the most chalk draft lottery so far. The bottom 2 teams retained their picks, while the Blues saw a slight jump up to 3. Based on how things went on draft day, probably would have been better to pick 4 & 5 (Heiskanen & Makar) rather than 2 & 3 (Patrick and Vilardi)

 

2016 

 

  1. Arizona via Buffalo (11th - 3%)

  2. Pittsburgh (7th - 6.5%)

  3. Los Angeles (2nd - 13.5%)

Losers: Edmonton (1st - 20%), Minnesota (3rd - 11.5%)

 

The Coyotes are still the only double winners in our league, winning the cup in 2016 and making a massive jump up with the Sabres pick to pick 1st overall. 

 

As you can see below, even finishing at the bottom of the standings has little guarantee on winning a lottery spot (sorry Derek). At most you might have a 50% shot, as the 2, 3 and 5 spots have weirdly shown. While for some reason the 4th slot has been a bit of a black hole in the lottery. Now we’ll see if a team lower than 11th can win a spot, which they haven’t done yet.


 

1. Buffalo (2017), Carolina (2019), Arizona (2021), Nashville (2025) (4/10)

2. Los Angeles (2016), Dallas (2017), Colorado (2018), Buffalo (2020), Dallas (2024) (5/10) 

3. Detroit (2019), Vegas (2021), Boston (2022), Boston (2023), Boston (2025) (5/10)

4. Islanders (2020) (1/10)

5. St. Louis (2017), Rangers (2020), Vegas (2022), Tampa Bay (2023), Islanders (2024) (5/10)

6. Florida (2024) (1/10)

7. Pittsburgh (2016), Los Angeles (2023), Pittsburgh (2025) (3/10)

8. Anaheim (2019) (1/10)

9. San Jose (2021) (1/10)

10. Chicago (2018), Islanders (2022) (2/10)

11. Arizona (2016), Boston (2018) (2/10)

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